What to expect in the stock market in 2024?
Among notable Wall Street firms, Yardeni Research holds the most bullish price target, with an anticipated gain of over 14%. On the downside, JPMorgan expects the S&P 500 to fall roughly 11% in 2024. The consensus price target appears to be the 5,100 level, which would signify modest gains for equities next year.
The S&P 500's current rally bodes well for the month of February and for the rest of 2024. βThe S&P 500 has set six new all-time highs in 2024, all in January. That works out to an annualized rate of 72 new highs,β says Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist of CFRA Research.
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%β5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
In 2024 so far, large-cap stocks have maintained their performance edge over small-cap stocks: The Morningstar US Large Cap Index has outperformed the Morningstar US Small Cap Index by more than 4 full percentage points this year through late January. Many investors may shrug and say, what else is new?
"Looking ahead, we anticipate that the economic slowdown will weigh on equity markets, allowing for a potential pivot toward investments that we believe are most likely to benefit from a subsequent recovery," Cronk said. His 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 ranges from 4,600 to 4,800.
Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.
By 2025, the famed market watcher and founder of Yardeni Research sees the S&P 500 jumping nearly 30% to 6,000.
The Dow Jones is forecasted to trade in the 40,000-50,000 range during 2025 and continue the sideways movements in the next years. In five years from now, the agency forecasts Dow Jones to trade at around 50,000 points.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
How to invest $50,000 in 2024?
βIf you're on the hunt for a surefire return in 2024, your safest play is to consider locking in CD rates, bonds, or money market accounts that are currently yielding between 4% and 6%,β said Joe Camberato, CEO, National Business Capital.
Price ($) | 12-Month Trailing ROE Ratio (%) | |
---|---|---|
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) | 220.09 | 1446.77 |
Tempur Sealy International, Inc. (TPX) | 50.57 | 1275.77 |
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) | 351.81 | 1151.32 |
There are many ways you can invest money, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), certificates of deposit (CDs), savings accounts, and more. The best option for you depends on your particular risk tolerance and financial goals.
One of the main benefits of a long-term investment approach is money. Keeping your stocks in your portfolio longer is more cost-effective than regular buying and selling because the longer you hold your investments, the fewer fees you have to pay.
Stock | Forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) |
---|---|
Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) | 25.3 |
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | 30.0 |
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) | 26.6 |
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 57.6 |
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
---|---|
15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
25 years (1999-2023) | 7.18% |
30 years (1994-2023) | 9.67% |
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
1 Rule For When To Sell Stocks. To make money in stocks, you must protect the money you already have. That brings us to the cardinal rule of selling. Always sell a stock it if falls 7%-8% below what you paid for it.
Global GDP growth forecasts range from 2.5-3%, which is slightly lower than the 10-year average (2013-2022) of 3.1%. The U.S. is also forecasted to see slowing growth, with the IMF's forecasts of 2.4% in 2023 moving down to 1.5% in 2024, while Europe is also expected to continue seeing slow growth at 0.9% in 2024.
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. Every 3.5 years: That's the long-term average frequency between bear markets.
Will 2024 be a bull year?
Recent economic data βvalidates our theory that 2024 will be the year of rate cuts, and that's very bullish for stocks,β he says. A decline in rates worldwide should spell a good year for markets and less of a possibility of a recession, he says. βSo we're as bulled up as we're ever going to be, probably.β
Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
US stocks will likely be the best investment over the next five years, according to Carson Group. The investment firm expects the US stock market to surge as much as 100% between now and 2028. "The US has now raced ahead of other developed markets when looking at economic growth since the pandemic," Carson Group said.
Company (ticker) | 5-Year Avg. Yearly EPS Forecast |
---|---|
Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) | 102.5% |
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) | 80.3% |
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) | 68.0% |
Willscot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. (WSC) | 36.8% |
S&P 500 will surge all the way to 6,000 in 2025 in 'Roaring 2020s' scenario, says Ed Yardeni.
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